HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Scores are home–away. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. Backtests that predate the verified JV cleanup are withheld until refreshed. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
2022-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-10.0% chanceDe La Salle North Catholic win
2018-09-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-00.2% chanceCrater win
2018-10-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-00.4% chanceCascade win
2023-10-02Chronological backtest
KE
KennedyHomeFinal (home–away) 4-00.8% chanceKennedy win
2022-10-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-11.0% chanceDamascus Christian win
2017-10-07Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-01.7% chanceSweet Home win
2019-09-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-01.7% chanceGlide win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-31.9% chanceSouth Eugene win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-31.9% chanceHood River Valley win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-31.9% chanceWilsonville win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-21.9% chanceBeaverton win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-11.9% chanceHillsboro win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-21.9% chanceCentral Catholic win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-61.9% chanceBrookings-Harbor win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-71.9% chanceThurston win
2021-10-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-12.1% chanceLake Oswego win
2022-10-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-22.1% chanceHillsboro win
2014-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-12.1% chanceCrater win
2018-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-02.2% chanceEstacada win
2023-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-32.3% chanceSunset win
2015-10-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-02.3% chanceBrookings-Harbor win
2019-10-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-12.4% chanceMazama win
2014-09-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 5-12.5% chanceSt. Helens win
2019-10-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-22.6% chanceBanks win
2019-10-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-22.9% chanceRogue River win
2019-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-13.0% chanceThurston win
2019-10-01Chronological backtest
CE
CentralAway
Final (home–away) 2-43.2% chanceCentral win
2022-10-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-13.2% chanceCrook County win
2018-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-03.2% chanceSouth Umpqua win
2022-10-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-13.3% chanceSantiam Christian / Kings Valley Char. win
2014-10-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-13.6% chanceMazama win
2016-10-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-13.6% chanceCorbett win
2015-09-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-23.6% chanceSantiam Christian win
2018-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-13.8% chanceLife Christian win
2016-10-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-63.9% chanceIllinois Valley win
2019-10-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-04.1% chanceBaker / Powder Valley win
2019-10-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-54.1% chanceMannahouse Christian Acad. win
2023-10-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-44.2% chanceDamascus Christian win
2022-09-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-24.3% chanceNorth Clackamas Christian win
2018-10-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-04.4% chanceMcMinnville win
2016-10-14Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-04.4% chanceEast Linn Christian win
2021-11-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-14.4% chanceOntario win
2017-10-02Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-34.4% chanceWestern Mennonite win
2016-11-02Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-14.5% chanceDelphian win
2018-09-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-44.6% chanceCentral Christian win
2023-10-26Chronological backtest
CE
CentralHomeFinal (home–away) 1-04.6% chanceCentral win
2023-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-44.8% chanceTaft win
2022-11-08Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-24.8% chanceWest Albany win
2015-10-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-14.9% chanceCentral Linn win
2024-09-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-15.0% chanceMarist Catholic win
| Date | Match | Final (home–away) | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-03 | | 0-1 | De La Salle North Catholic | 0.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-13 | | 1-0 | Crater | 0.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-23 | | 1-0 | Cascade | 0.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-02 | KE Kennedy | 4-0 | Kennedy | 0.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-21 | | 0-1 | Damascus Christian | 1.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-07 | | 1-0 | Sweet Home | 1.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-24 | | 1-0 | Glide | 1.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 1-3 | South Eugene | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 1-3 | Hood River Valley | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 1-3 | Wilsonville | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 0-2 | Beaverton | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 0-1 | Hillsboro | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 1-2 | Central Catholic | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 0-6 | Brookings-Harbor | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 1-7 | Thurston | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-18 | | 4-1 | Lake Oswego | 2.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-27 | | 4-2 | Hillsboro | 2.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2014-10-22 | | 0-1 | Crater | 2.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-04 | | 1-0 | Estacada | 2.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-20 | | 1-3 | Sunset | 2.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2015-10-15 | | 1-0 | Brookings-Harbor | 2.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-21 | | 3-1 | Mazama | 2.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2014-09-30 | | 5-1 | St. Helens | 2.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-15 | | 3-2 | Banks | 2.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-16 | | 3-2 | Rogue River | 2.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-22 | | 2-1 | Thurston | 3.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-01 | CE Central at | 2-4 | Central | 3.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-20 | | 2-1 | Crook County | 3.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-04 | | 1-0 | South Umpqua | 3.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-05 | | 2-1 | Santiam Christian / Kings Valley Char. | 3.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2014-10-25 | | 2-1 | Mazama | 3.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-06 | | 0-1 | Corbett | 3.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2015-09-24 | | 1-2 | Santiam Christian | 3.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-17 | | 2-1 | Life Christian | 3.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-05 | | 1-6 | Illinois Valley | 3.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-12 | | 1-0 | Baker / Powder Valley | 4.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-19 | | 4-5 | Mannahouse Christian Acad. | 4.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-19 | | 2-4 | Damascus Christian | 4.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-30 | | 0-2 | North Clackamas Christian | 4.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-18 | | 1-0 | McMinnville | 4.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-14 | | 1-0 | East Linn Christian | 4.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-11-03 | | 0-1 | Ontario | 4.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-02 | | 2-3 | Western Mennonite | 4.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-11-02 | | 0-1 | Delphian | 4.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-24 | | 3-4 | Central Christian | 4.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-26 | CE Central | 1-0 | Central | 4.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-03 | | 3-4 | Taft | 4.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-11-08 | | 1-2 | West Albany | 4.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2015-10-06 | | 0-1 | Central Linn | 4.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-24 | | 0-1 | Marist Catholic | 5.0% | Chronological backtest |