HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Scores are home–away. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. Backtests that predate the verified JV cleanup are withheld until refreshed. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
2018-09-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-00.2% chanceCrater win
2018-10-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-00.4% chanceCascade win
2018-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-02.2% chanceEstacada win
2018-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-03.2% chanceSouth Umpqua win
2018-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-13.8% chanceLife Christian win
2018-10-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-04.4% chanceMcMinnville win
2018-09-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-44.6% chanceCentral Christian win
2018-09-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-15.7% chanceDelphian win
2018-09-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 5-66.6% chanceCity Christian win
2018-10-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-07.4% chanceCanby win
2018-09-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-17.4% chanceCentral Linn win
2018-09-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-27.5% chanceOntario win
2018-11-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-48.5% chanceRiverside win
2018-10-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-38.8% chanceAloha win
2018-09-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-08.9% chanceNorth Salem win
2018-10-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-09.1% chanceNyssa win
2018-10-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-110.2% chanceOregon City win
2018-09-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-110.4% chanceJunction City win
2018-10-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-110.5% chanceCrook County win
2018-09-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-111.4% chanceCrook County win
2018-10-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-111.8% chanceSeaside win
2018-10-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-112.0% chanceFranklin win
2018-10-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-312.4% chanceLiberty win
2018-10-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-112.4% chanceSisters win
2018-10-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-213.0% chanceSandy win
2018-09-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-113.1% chanceSeaside win
2018-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-213.5% chanceAloha win
2018-09-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-113.6% chanceLa Grande win
2018-11-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-114.4% chanceNorth Marion win
2018-09-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-014.5% chanceGladstone win
2018-10-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-114.8% chanceGladstone win
2018-09-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-414.9% chanceMolalla win
2018-09-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-414.9% chanceSutherlin win
2018-10-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-116.1% chanceDavid Douglas win
2018-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-116.3% chanceMcMinnville win
2018-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-216.4% chanceGlencoe win
2018-09-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-316.5% chanceMountain View win
2018-08-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-216.7% chanceWest Albany win
2018-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-317.4% chanceMarshfield win
2018-10-02Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-318.9% chanceAshland win
2018-10-02Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-019.0% chanceGlencoe win
2018-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-219.0% chanceGlencoe win
2018-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-019.4% chanceClackamas win
2018-10-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-019.7% chanceCottage Grove win
2018-10-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-120.6% chanceTillamook win
2018-10-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 9-221.1% chancePortland Christian win
2018-10-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-221.1% chanceBend win
2018-10-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-021.3% chanceHidden Valley win
2018-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-222.1% chanceCentury win
2018-09-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-822.2% chanceHorizon Christian, Hood River win
| Date | Match | Final (home–away) | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-09-13 | | 1-0 | Crater | 0.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-23 | | 1-0 | Cascade | 0.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-04 | | 1-0 | Estacada | 2.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-04 | | 1-0 | South Umpqua | 3.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-17 | | 2-1 | Life Christian | 3.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-18 | | 1-0 | McMinnville | 4.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-24 | | 3-4 | Central Christian | 4.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-21 | | 3-1 | Delphian | 5.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-28 | | 5-6 | City Christian | 6.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-11 | | 3-0 | Canby | 7.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-25 | | 2-1 | Central Linn | 7.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-15 | | 1-2 | Ontario | 7.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-11-03 | | 3-4 | Riverside | 8.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-30 | | 2-3 | Aloha | 8.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-13 | | 1-0 | North Salem | 8.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-20 | | 4-0 | Nyssa | 9.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-11 | | 2-1 | Oregon City | 10.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-25 | | 0-1 | Junction City | 10.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-25 | | 0-1 | Crook County | 10.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-27 | | 2-1 | Crook County | 11.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-30 | | 0-1 | Seaside | 11.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-16 | | 0-1 | Franklin | 12.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-27 | | 2-3 | Liberty | 12.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-10 | | 2-1 | Sisters | 12.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-10 | | 1-2 | Sandy | 13.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-13 | | 3-1 | Seaside | 13.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-04 | | 1-2 | Aloha | 13.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-22 | | 4-1 | La Grande | 13.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-11-06 | | 0-1 | North Marion | 14.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-13 | | 2-0 | Gladstone | 14.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-17 | | 0-1 | Gladstone | 14.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-27 | | 1-4 | Molalla | 14.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-25 | | 1-4 | Sutherlin | 14.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-18 | | 0-1 | David Douglas | 16.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-22 | | 0-1 | McMinnville | 16.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-22 | | 1-2 | Glencoe | 16.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-28 | | 1-3 | Mountain View | 16.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-08-27 | | 3-2 | West Albany | 16.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-20 | | 1-3 | Marshfield | 17.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-02 | | 2-3 | Ashland | 18.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-02 | | 2-0 | Glencoe | 19.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-17 | | 0-2 | Glencoe | 19.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-20 | | 2-0 | Clackamas | 19.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-23 | | 1-0 | Cottage Grove | 19.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-18 | | 3-1 | Tillamook | 20.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-11 | | 9-2 | Portland Christian | 21.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-16 | | 1-2 | Bend | 21.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-15 | | 3-0 | Hidden Valley | 21.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-20 | | 1-2 | Century | 22.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-04 | | 0-8 | Horizon Christian, Hood River | 22.2% | Chronological backtest |