HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Scores are home–away. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. Backtests that predate the verified JV cleanup are withheld until refreshed. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
2024-09-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-15.0% chanceMarist Catholic win
2024-10-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-28.0% chanceSprague win
2024-10-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-49.8% chanceElmira win
2024-10-01Chronological backtest
MA
Mannahouse Acad., PortlandAway
Final (home–away) 3-211.7% chanceWillamette Valley Christian win
2024-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-211.8% chanceParkrose win
2024-11-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-212.6% chanceHenley win
2024-11-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-313.2% chanceWilsonville win
2024-09-26Chronological backtest
JC
Junction City / HarrisburgHomeFinal (home–away) 3-113.3% chanceJunction City / Harrisburg win
2024-10-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-413.4% chanceRogue River win
2024-10-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-114.1% chanceTualatin win
2024-10-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-215.0% chanceAstoria win
2024-09-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-215.2% chancePutnam win
2024-10-22Chronological backtest
LR
Lost River / BonanzaAway
Final (home–away) 1-015.3% chanceCascade Christian win
2024-09-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-315.4% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win
2024-11-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-216.1% chanceLa Salle Prep win
2024-10-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-216.4% chanceSpringfield win
2024-10-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-116.7% chanceWest Salem win
2024-09-23Chronological backtest
VC
Valor Christian / Tualatin Valley Acad.HomeFinal (home–away) 1-917.0% chanceSouthwest Christian win
2024-09-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-617.5% chanceWillamette Valley Christian win
2024-10-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-017.9% chancePleasant Hill win
2024-10-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-018.0% chanceOregon City win
2024-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-218.2% chanceCaldera win
2024-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-218.3% chanceBarlow win
2024-10-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-118.9% chanceWest Salem win
2024-10-28Chronological backtest
VC
Valor Christian / Tualatin Valley Acad.HomeFinal (home–away) 1-319.3% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win
2024-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-219.4% chanceTaft win
2024-10-17Chronological backtest
CE
CentralHomeFinal (home–away) 2-019.8% chanceCentral win
2024-11-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-320.0% chanceGrant win
2024-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-620.1% chanceRoosevelt win
2024-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-420.3% chanceLake Oswego win
2024-10-10Chronological backtest
N/
Newport / WaldportHomeFinal (home–away) 1-220.3% chancePhilomath win
2024-10-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-121.3% chanceRidgeview win
2024-10-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-321.3% chanceSpringfield win
2024-10-25Chronological backtest
MA
Mannahouse Acad., PortlandHomeFinal (home–away) 1-221.5% chanceNorth Clackamas Christian win
2024-10-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-321.7% chanceColumbia Christian win
2024-09-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-521.8% chanceParkrose win
2024-09-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-222.0% chanceLa Grande win
2024-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-222.2% chanceTigard win
2024-10-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-122.3% chanceTualatin win
2024-09-09Chronological backtest
VC
Valor Christian / Tualatin Valley Acad.HomeFinal (home–away) 4-522.4% chanceCentral Christian win
2024-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-022.6% chanceGrants Pass win
2024-10-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-322.6% chanceSpringfield win
2024-11-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-122.7% chanceMcNary win
2024-09-09Chronological backtest
MA
Mannahouse Acad., PortlandHomeFinal (home–away) 8-023.1% chanceMannahouse Acad., Portland win
2024-10-07Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-223.2% chanceCrosshill Christian / Jefferson win
2024-08-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-223.4% chanceCrosshill Christian / Jefferson win
2024-10-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-123.5% chanceMountain View win
2024-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-323.6% chanceMcKay win
2024-09-24Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-223.6% chanceFranklin win
2024-09-14Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-323.9% chanceIrrigon win
| Date | Match | Final (home–away) | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-24 | | 0-1 | Marist Catholic | 5.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-18 | | 1-2 | Sprague | 8.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-24 | | 3-4 | Elmira | 9.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-01 | MA Mannahouse Acad., Portland at | 3-2 | Willamette Valley Christian | 11.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-22 | | 3-2 | Parkrose | 11.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-11-12 | | 1-2 | Henley | 12.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-11-09 | | 2-3 | Wilsonville | 13.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-26 | JC Junction City / Harrisburg | 3-1 | Junction City / Harrisburg | 13.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-01 | | 3-4 | Rogue River | 13.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-16 | | 2-1 | Tualatin | 14.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-17 | | 1-2 | Astoria | 15.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-11 | | 0-2 | Putnam | 15.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-22 | LR Lost River / Bonanza at | 1-0 | Cascade Christian | 15.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-12 | | 0-3 | Livingstone Adventist Acad. | 15.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-11-16 | | 1-2 | La Salle Prep | 16.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-19 | | 3-2 | Springfield | 16.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-25 | | 0-1 | West Salem | 16.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-23 | VC Valor Christian / Tualatin Valley Acad. | 1-9 | Southwest Christian | 17.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-19 | | 3-6 | Willamette Valley Christian | 17.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-23 | | 1-0 | Pleasant Hill | 17.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-09 | | 2-0 | Oregon City | 18.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-17 | | 1-2 | Caldera | 18.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-26 | | 1-2 | Barlow | 18.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-15 | | 0-1 | West Salem | 18.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-28 | VC Valor Christian / Tualatin Valley Acad. | 1-3 | Livingstone Adventist Acad. | 19.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-03 | | 3-2 | Taft | 19.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-17 | CE Central | 2-0 | Central | 19.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-11-09 | | 1-3 | Grant | 20.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-22 | | 1-6 | Roosevelt | 20.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-17 | | 2-4 | Lake Oswego | 20.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-10 | N/ Newport / Waldport | 1-2 | Philomath | 20.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-25 | | 2-1 | Ridgeview | 21.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-16 | | 1-3 | Springfield | 21.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-25 | MA Mannahouse Acad., Portland | 1-2 | North Clackamas Christian | 21.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-23 | | 2-3 | Columbia Christian | 21.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-11 | | 2-5 | Parkrose | 21.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-12 | | 3-2 | La Grande | 22.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-26 | | 1-2 | Tigard | 22.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-24 | | 0-1 | Tualatin | 22.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-09 | VC Valor Christian / Tualatin Valley Acad. | 4-5 | Central Christian | 22.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-03 | | 1-0 | Grants Pass | 22.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-26 | | 2-3 | Springfield | 22.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-11-09 | | 0-1 | McNary | 22.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-09 | MA Mannahouse Acad., Portland | 8-0 | Mannahouse Acad., Portland | 23.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-07 | | 1-2 | Crosshill Christian / Jefferson | 23.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-08-30 | | 1-2 | Crosshill Christian / Jefferson | 23.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-11 | | 0-1 | Mountain View | 23.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-10-22 | | 1-3 | McKay | 23.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-24 | | 1-2 | Franklin | 23.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2024-09-14 | | 2-3 | Irrigon | 23.9% | Chronological backtest |