HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Scores are home–away. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. Backtests that predate the verified JV cleanup are withheld until refreshed. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
2026-09-22Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 3-25.2% chanceSherwood win
2026-09-18Chronological backtest
FB
Faith Bible / Life ChristianHomeFinal (home–away) 0-26.7% chancePortland Christian win
2026-09-15Chronological backtest
VC
Valor ChristianAway
Final (home–away) 6-48.6% chanceColumbia Christian win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-28.7% chanceSouthwest Christian win
2026-09-08Chronological backtest
N/
Nyssa / AdrianAway
Final (home–away) 5-110.1% chanceLa Grande win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-210.7% chanceCrescent Valley win
2026-09-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-213.0% chanceBrookings-Harbor win
2026-08-31Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-113.0% chanceCentury win
2026-09-10Chronological backtest
EC
Eugene Christian / Northwest Christian Acad.Away
Final (home–away) 8-014.3% chanceUmpqua Valley Christian win
2026-09-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-015.8% chanceRidgeview win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-216.7% chanceCaldera win
2026-09-22Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 1-317.9% chanceOregon City win
2026-09-01Chronological backtest
WC
Western ChristianAwayFinal (home–away) 1-018.0% chanceSouthwest Christian win
2026-08-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 5-118.5% chanceSalem Acad. win
2026-08-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-118.5% chanceMilwaukie win
2026-09-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-319.1% chanceParkrose win
2026-09-10Chronological backtest
N/
Nyssa / AdrianHomeFinal (home–away) 0-120.0% chanceUmatilla win
2026-09-03Chronological backtest
VC
Valor ChristianAwayFB
Faith Bible / Life ChristianHomeFinal (home–away) 5-220.3% chanceFaith Bible / Life Christian win
2026-09-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-120.4% chanceParkrose win
2026-08-27Chronological backtest
WC
Western ChristianHomeFinal (home–away) 0-621.4% chanceNorth Clackamas Christian win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
FB
Faith Bible / Life ChristianAway
Final (home–away) 1-221.7% chanceFaith Bible / Life Christian win
2026-09-22Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 2-122.0% chanceSweet Home win
2026-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-122.1% chanceBend win
2026-09-14Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-322.1% chanceEast Linn Christian win
2026-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 8-023.0% chanceBlanchet Catholic win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-323.6% chanceWoodburn win
2026-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-324.2% chanceRogue River win
2026-08-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-024.2% chanceLiberty win
2026-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-024.4% chanceRedmond / Culver win
2026-09-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-024.5% chanceMarist Catholic win
2026-09-14Chronological backtest
WC
Western ChristianHomeFinal (home–away) 1-224.5% chanceDamascus Christian win
2026-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 8-025.0% chanceMazama win
2026-09-08Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-025.1% chanceClackamas win
2026-09-08Chronological backtest
C/
Clatskanie / RainierAway
Final (home–away) 4-025.3% chanceYamhill-Carlton win
2026-09-10Chronological backtest
C/
Clatskanie / RainierAwayKE
KennedyHomeFinal (home–away) 3-025.6% chanceKennedy win
2026-09-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-225.6% chanceRiverside win
2026-09-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-125.7% chanceCanby win
2026-09-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-226.5% chanceBrookings-Harbor win
2026-09-08Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 9-127.0% chanceCoquille / Myrtle Point win
2026-09-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-027.0% chanceCottage Grove win
2026-09-08Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-327.6% chanceWilsonville win
2026-09-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-227.8% chanceBaker / Powder Valley win
2026-09-08Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-228.0% chanceSouth Salem win
2026-09-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-328.9% chanceMolalla win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-229.2% chanceCentral Catholic win
2026-09-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 8-129.4% chanceEast Linn Christian win
2026-09-01Chronological backtest
AM
AmityAwayWV
Willamette Valley Christian / Livingstone Adventist Acad.HomeFinal (home–away) 3-029.5% chanceWillamette Valley Christian / Livingstone Adventist Acad. win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 5-029.9% chancePortland Adventist Acad. win
2026-09-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-030.0% chancePutnam win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-030.0% chanceLa Salle Prep win
| Date | Match | Final (home–away) | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | | 3-2 | Sherwood | 5.2% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-18 | FB Faith Bible / Life Christian | 0-2 | Portland Christian | 6.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-15 | VC Valor Christian at | 6-4 | Columbia Christian | 8.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | | 1-2 | Southwest Christian | 8.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-08 | N/ Nyssa / Adrian at | 5-1 | La Grande | 10.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | | 4-2 | Crescent Valley | 10.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-15 | | 4-2 | Brookings-Harbor | 13.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-08-31 | | 3-1 | Century | 13.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-10 | EC Eugene Christian / Northwest Christian Acad. at | 8-0 | Umpqua Valley Christian | 14.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-15 | | 1-0 | Ridgeview | 15.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | | 0-2 | Caldera | 16.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-22 | | 1-3 | Oregon City | 17.9% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-01 | WC Western Christian at | 1-0 | Southwest Christian | 18.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-08-29 | | 5-1 | Salem Acad. | 18.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-08-29 | | 2-1 | Milwaukie | 18.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-10 | | 1-3 | Parkrose | 19.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-10 | N/ Nyssa / Adrian | 0-1 | Umatilla | 20.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-03 | VC Valor Christian at FB Faith Bible / Life Christian | 5-2 | Faith Bible / Life Christian | 20.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-01 | | 2-1 | Parkrose | 20.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-08-27 | WC Western Christian | 0-6 | North Clackamas Christian | 21.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | FB Faith Bible / Life Christian at | 1-2 | Faith Bible / Life Christian | 21.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-22 | | 2-1 | Sweet Home | 22.0% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-03 | | 4-1 | Bend | 22.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-14 | | 2-3 | East Linn Christian | 22.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-03 | | 8-0 | Blanchet Catholic | 23.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | | 2-3 | Woodburn | 23.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-03 | | 4-3 | Rogue River | 24.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-08-29 | | 1-0 | Liberty | 24.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-03 | | 2-0 | Redmond / Culver | 24.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-01 | | 2-0 | Marist Catholic | 24.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-14 | WC Western Christian | 1-2 | Damascus Christian | 24.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-03 | | 8-0 | Mazama | 25.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-08 | | 1-0 | Clackamas | 25.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-08 | C/ Clatskanie / Rainier at | 4-0 | Yamhill-Carlton | 25.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-10 | C/ Clatskanie / Rainier at KE Kennedy | 3-0 | Kennedy | 25.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-10 | | 1-2 | Riverside | 25.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-15 | | 0-1 | Canby | 25.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-10 | | 0-2 | Brookings-Harbor | 26.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-08 | | 9-1 | Coquille / Myrtle Point | 27.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-04 | | 1-0 | Cottage Grove | 27.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-08 | | 0-3 | Wilsonville | 27.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-15 | | 0-2 | Baker / Powder Valley | 27.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-08 | | 3-2 | South Salem | 28.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-12 | | 2-3 | Molalla | 28.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | | 1-2 | Central Catholic | 29.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-01 | | 8-1 | East Linn Christian | 29.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-01 | AM Amity at WV Willamette Valley Christian / Livingstone Adventist Acad. | 3-0 | Willamette Valley Christian / Livingstone Adventist Acad. | 29.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | | 5-0 | Portland Adventist Acad. | 29.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-01 | | 1-0 | Putnam | 30.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | | 3-0 | La Salle Prep | 30.0% | Chronological backtest |