HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Scores are home–away. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. Backtests that predate the verified JV cleanup are withheld until refreshed. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
2016-10-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-13.6% chanceCorbett win
2016-10-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-63.9% chanceIllinois Valley win
2016-10-14Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-04.4% chanceEast Linn Christian win
2016-11-02Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-14.5% chanceDelphian win
2016-10-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-45.0% chanceCrook County win
2016-10-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-26.0% chanceMountain View win
2016-09-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-16.2% chanceFaith Bible win
2016-09-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-36.7% chanceCrosshill Christian win
2016-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-37.4% chanceCrook County win
2016-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-27.9% chanceWestview win
2016-10-14Chronological backtest
CE
CentralHomeFinal (home–away) 0-37.9% chanceMcNary win
2016-10-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-38.0% chanceSouthwest Christian win
2016-10-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-28.4% chanceMountain View win
2016-10-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-28.4% chanceKlamath Union win
2016-09-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-18.6% chanceDayton win
2016-10-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-29.2% chanceBeaverton win
2016-10-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-39.3% chanceReynolds win
2016-11-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-19.4% chanceLa Salle Prep win
2016-10-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-19.6% chanceTigard win
2016-10-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-19.7% chanceCascade win
2016-10-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-210.0% chanceJunction City win
2016-09-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-210.4% chanceForest Grove win
2016-10-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-510.7% chanceDelphian win
2016-10-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-211.4% chanceLincoln win
2016-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-211.4% chanceRiverdale win
2016-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-011.7% chanceSouth Medford win
2016-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-212.5% chanceLakeridge win
2016-10-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-312.5% chancePhilomath win
2016-09-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-212.8% chanceNorth Salem win
2016-09-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-312.9% chanceCentral Christian win
2016-09-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-1213.1% chanceOpen Door Christian Acad. win
2016-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-314.0% chanceHenley win
2016-10-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-114.2% chanceSouth Albany win
2016-11-02Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-314.3% chanceWest Linn win
2016-10-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-114.8% chanceSouthwest Christian win
2016-10-08Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-215.0% chanceGrants Pass win
2016-09-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-215.7% chanceGervais win
2016-09-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-115.8% chanceNorth Medford win
2016-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-415.9% chanceMadras win
2016-11-02Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-315.9% chanceNewberg win
2016-09-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-316.3% chanceDallas win
2016-09-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-116.4% chanceTigard win
2016-09-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-116.6% chanceHenley win
2016-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 5-016.7% chanceMarshfield win
2016-09-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-216.8% chanceNewberg win
2016-09-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-116.8% chanceDelphian win
2016-11-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-316.9% chanceLakeridge win
2016-09-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-517.2% chanceLakeridge win
2016-09-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-117.3% chanceGrants Pass win
2016-10-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-117.6% chanceMcKay win
| Date | Match | Final (home–away) | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-06 | | 0-1 | Corbett | 3.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-05 | | 1-6 | Illinois Valley | 3.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-14 | | 1-0 | East Linn Christian | 4.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-11-02 | | 0-1 | Delphian | 4.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-06 | | 3-4 | Crook County | 5.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-20 | | 3-2 | Mountain View | 6.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-28 | | 2-1 | Faith Bible | 6.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-29 | | 4-3 | Crosshill Christian | 6.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-20 | | 4-3 | Crook County | 7.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-26 | | 0-2 | Westview | 7.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-14 | CE Central | 0-3 | McNary | 7.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-19 | | 2-3 | Southwest Christian | 8.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-15 | | 3-2 | Mountain View | 8.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-06 | | 1-2 | Klamath Union | 8.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-30 | | 2-1 | Dayton | 8.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-06 | | 1-2 | Beaverton | 9.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-10 | | 2-3 | Reynolds | 9.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-11-05 | | 0-1 | La Salle Prep | 9.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-13 | | 3-1 | Tigard | 9.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-25 | | 2-1 | Cascade | 9.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-13 | | 1-2 | Junction City | 10.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-29 | | 1-2 | Forest Grove | 10.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-11 | | 0-5 | Delphian | 10.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-12 | | 1-2 | Lincoln | 11.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-04 | | 1-2 | Riverdale | 11.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-04 | | 1-0 | South Medford | 11.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-20 | | 0-2 | Lakeridge | 12.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-29 | | 1-3 | Philomath | 12.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-29 | | 1-2 | North Salem | 12.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-29 | | 2-3 | Central Christian | 12.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-12 | | 1-12 | Open Door Christian Acad. | 13.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-03 | | 0-3 | Henley | 14.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-12 | | 3-1 | South Albany | 14.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-11-02 | | 1-3 | West Linn | 14.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-13 | | 4-1 | Southwest Christian | 14.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-08 | | 3-2 | Grants Pass | 15.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-21 | | 0-2 | Gervais | 15.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-06 | | 0-1 | North Medford | 15.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-20 | | 3-4 | Madras | 15.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-11-02 | | 1-3 | Newberg | 15.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-06 | | 2-3 | Dallas | 16.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-22 | | 0-1 | Tigard | 16.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-29 | | 0-1 | Henley | 16.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-20 | | 5-0 | Marshfield | 16.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-06 | | 1-2 | Newberg | 16.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-23 | | 0-1 | Delphian | 16.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-11-12 | | 2-3 | Lakeridge | 16.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-06 | | 1-5 | Lakeridge | 17.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-09-27 | | 2-1 | Grants Pass | 17.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-06 | | 2-1 | McKay | 17.6% | Chronological backtest |