HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Scores are home–away. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. Backtests that predate the verified JV cleanup are withheld until refreshed. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
2025-10-02Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-25.7% chancePendleton win
2025-10-15Chronological backtest
JC
Junction City / HarrisburgHomeFinal (home–away) 2-16.6% chanceJunction City / Harrisburg win
2025-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-18.6% chanceCentral Christian win
2025-11-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-39.2% chanceCorvallis win
2025-09-22Chronological backtest
RW
Riverside, WLWVHomeFinal (home–away) 2-19.2% chanceRiverside, WLWV win
2025-10-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-211.5% chanceBend win
2025-09-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-211.5% chanceMcKay win
2025-09-16Chronological backtest
NE
NestuccaAwayKE
KennedyHomeFinal (home–away) 0-112.6% chanceNestucca win
2025-09-16Chronological backtest
N/
Newport / WaldportAway
Final (home–away) 0-113.0% chanceNewport / Waldport win
2025-10-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-013.3% chanceGlencoe win
2025-10-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-013.4% chanceNewberg win
2025-09-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-013.5% chanceEagle Point win
2025-11-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-113.8% chanceWestside Christian win
2025-09-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-214.3% chanceSutherlin win
2025-10-02Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-214.4% chanceHillsboro win
2025-09-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-314.4% chanceCoquille / Myrtle Point win
2025-10-16Chronological backtest
RW
Riverside, WLWVAway
Final (home–away) 2-314.4% chanceRiverside, WLWV win
2025-09-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-314.4% chanceCrescent Valley win
2025-09-24Chronological backtest
JC
Junction City / HarrisburgAway
Final (home–away) 0-115.2% chanceJunction City / Harrisburg win
2025-09-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-415.5% chanceRoosevelt win
2025-09-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-215.8% chanceWest Albany win
2025-09-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-015.8% chanceBeaverton win
2025-10-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-115.8% chanceCentral Linn win
2025-10-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 5-415.9% chanceCentral Christian win
2025-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-416.1% chancePendleton win
2025-09-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-116.7% chanceHood River Valley win
2025-09-06Chronological backtest
RW
Riverside, WLWVHomeFinal (home–away) 1-316.8% chanceBlanchet Catholic win
2025-10-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-616.9% chanceDamascus Christian win
2025-09-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-017.0% chanceNorth Valley win
2025-09-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-217.3% chanceSprague win
2025-09-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-217.6% chanceEstacada win
2025-09-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-417.8% chanceNelson win
2025-11-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-118.0% chanceIda B. Wells win
2025-09-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-018.1% chanceMilwaukie / Milwaukie Acad. of the Arts win
2025-09-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 7-418.3% chanceDamascus Christian win
2025-09-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-018.3% chanceSt. Mary's, Medford win
2025-10-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-218.4% chanceWoodburn win
2025-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-318.6% chanceMcLoughlin win
2025-10-14Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-518.7% chanceCorvallis win
2025-10-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-319.2% chanceAloha win
2025-09-09Chronological backtest
RW
Riverside, WLWVHomeFinal (home–away) 1-719.2% chanceSalem Acad. win
2025-09-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-219.4% chanceGrant win
2025-11-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-219.7% chanceWestside Christian win
2025-11-08Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-220.0% chanceNorth Marion win
2025-09-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-220.1% chanceMcLoughlin win
2025-08-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-620.5% chanceAshland win
2025-10-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-220.6% chanceCorbett win
2025-09-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-221.0% chanceNorth Marion win
2025-09-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-121.1% chanceTualatin win
2025-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-121.3% chanceOregon Episcopal win
| Date | Match | Final (home–away) | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | | 1-2 | Pendleton | 5.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-15 | JC Junction City / Harrisburg | 2-1 | Junction City / Harrisburg | 6.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-22 | | 2-1 | Central Christian | 8.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-11-11 | | 2-3 | Corvallis | 9.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-22 | RW Riverside, WLWV | 2-1 | Riverside, WLWV | 9.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-22 | | 4-2 | Bend | 11.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-09 | | 1-2 | McKay | 11.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-16 | NE Nestucca at KE Kennedy | 0-1 | Nestucca | 12.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-16 | N/ Newport / Waldport at | 0-1 | Newport / Waldport | 13.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-06 | | 2-0 | Glencoe | 13.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-20 | | 1-0 | Newberg | 13.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-18 | | 1-0 | Eagle Point | 13.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-11-11 | | 0-1 | Westside Christian | 13.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-16 | | 1-2 | Sutherlin | 14.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-02 | | 1-2 | Hillsboro | 14.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-16 | | 1-3 | Coquille / Myrtle Point | 14.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-16 | RW Riverside, WLWV at | 2-3 | Riverside, WLWV | 14.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-18 | | 0-3 | Crescent Valley | 14.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-24 | JC Junction City / Harrisburg at | 0-1 | Junction City / Harrisburg | 15.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-16 | | 1-4 | Roosevelt | 15.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-13 | | 1-2 | West Albany | 15.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-15 | | 3-0 | Beaverton | 15.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-09 | | 0-1 | Central Linn | 15.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-27 | | 5-4 | Central Christian | 15.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-20 | | 3-4 | Pendleton | 16.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-18 | | 3-1 | Hood River Valley | 16.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-06 | RW Riverside, WLWV | 1-3 | Blanchet Catholic | 16.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-16 | | 2-6 | Damascus Christian | 16.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-18 | | 2-0 | North Valley | 17.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-12 | | 1-2 | Sprague | 17.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-23 | | 1-2 | Estacada | 17.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-25 | | 1-4 | Nelson | 17.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-11-05 | | 0-1 | Ida B. Wells | 18.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-23 | | 1-0 | Milwaukie / Milwaukie Acad. of the Arts | 18.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-23 | | 7-4 | Damascus Christian | 18.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-13 | | 3-0 | St. Mary's, Medford | 18.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-23 | | 3-2 | Woodburn | 18.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-26 | | 1-3 | McLoughlin | 18.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-14 | | 1-5 | Corvallis | 18.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-09 | | 1-3 | Aloha | 19.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-09 | RW Riverside, WLWV | 1-7 | Salem Acad. | 19.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-18 | | 0-2 | Grant | 19.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-11-15 | | 1-2 | Westside Christian | 19.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-11-08 | | 1-2 | North Marion | 20.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-12 | | 0-2 | McLoughlin | 20.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-08-29 | | 0-6 | Ashland | 20.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-10-23 | | 1-2 | Corbett | 20.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-30 | | 1-2 | North Marion | 21.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-23 | | 3-1 | Tualatin | 21.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2025-09-26 | | 4-1 | Oregon Episcopal | 21.3% | Chronological backtest |