HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
Verified JV games have been removed and historical ranks recalculated. Backtested probabilities for affected seasons were calculated before that cleanup and are pending a separate refresh.
2022-10-03Chronological backtest
Final 0-10.0% chanceDe La Salle North Catholic win
2018-09-13Chronological backtest
Final 1-00.1% chanceCrater win
2018-10-23Chronological backtest
Final 1-00.2% chanceCascade win
2022-10-21Chronological backtest
Final 0-10.3% chanceDamascus Christian win
2014-10-22Chronological backtest
Final 0-10.6% chanceCrater win
2018-09-19Chronological backtest
Final 3-40.7% chanceCrater win
2023-10-02Chronological backtest
Final 4-00.8% chanceKennedy win
2022-10-27Chronological backtest
Final 4-21.2% chanceHillsboro win
2021-10-18Chronological backtest
Final 4-11.2% chanceLake Oswego win
2018-10-04Chronological backtest
Final 1-01.4% chanceEstacada win
2014-09-30Chronological backtest
Final 5-11.5% chanceSt. Helens win
2017-10-07Chronological backtest
Final 1-01.6% chanceSweet Home win
2015-10-15Chronological backtest
Final 1-01.7% chanceBrookings-Harbor win
2019-09-24Chronological backtest
Final 1-01.7% chanceGlide win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final 0-61.9% chanceBrookings-Harbor win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final 1-71.9% chanceThurston win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final 1-31.9% chanceWilsonville win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final 1-21.9% chanceCentral Catholic win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final 0-21.9% chanceBeaverton win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final 1-31.9% chanceSouth Eugene win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final 1-31.9% chanceHood River Valley win
2013-09-03Chronological backtest
Final 0-11.9% chanceHillsboro win
2022-10-20Chronological backtest
Final 2-12.0% chanceCrook County win
2019-10-21Chronological backtest
Final 3-12.1% chanceMazama win
2021-10-26Chronological backtest
Final 3-22.2% chanceNorth Bend win
2023-09-20Chronological backtest
Final 1-32.3% chanceSunset win
2018-10-04Chronological backtest
Final 1-02.4% chanceSouth Umpqua win
2019-10-15Chronological backtest
Final 3-22.4% chanceBanks win
2022-10-05Chronological backtest
Final 2-12.5% chanceSantiam Christian / Kings Valley Char. win
2021-11-03Chronological backtest
Final 0-12.6% chanceOntario win
2018-09-17Chronological backtest
Final 2-12.6% chanceLife Christian win
2019-10-16Chronological backtest
Final 3-22.6% chanceRogue River win
2019-10-22Chronological backtest
Final 2-12.7% chanceThurston win
2022-09-30Chronological backtest
Final 0-22.7% chanceNorth Clackamas Christian win
2014-10-25Chronological backtest
Final 2-12.8% chanceMazama win
2015-09-24Chronological backtest
Final 1-22.9% chanceSantiam Christian win
2017-09-22Chronological backtest
Final 3-13.0% chanceHorizon Christian, Hood River win
2019-10-19Chronological backtest
Final 4-53.1% chanceMannahouse Christian Acad. win
2019-10-01Chronological backtest
Final 2-43.2% chanceCentral win
2016-10-06Chronological backtest
Final 0-13.4% chanceCorbett win
2018-10-18Chronological backtest
Final 1-03.4% chanceMcMinnville win
2021-10-18Chronological backtest
Final 3-23.5% chanceJunction City win
2018-09-24Chronological backtest
Final 3-43.5% chanceCentral Christian win
2019-10-12Chronological backtest
Final 1-03.7% chanceBaker / Powder Valley win
2022-09-22Chronological backtest
Final 3-13.9% chanceSandy win
2017-10-10Chronological backtest
Final 3-24.0% chanceGlide win
2016-10-05Chronological backtest
Final 1-64.0% chanceIllinois Valley win
2015-10-12Chronological backtest
Final 2-14.1% chanceHidden Valley win
2018-09-21Chronological backtest
Final 3-14.2% chanceDelphian win
2023-10-19Chronological backtest
Final 2-44.2% chanceDamascus Christian win
| Date | Match | Final | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-03 | | 0-1 | De La Salle North Catholic | 0.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-13 | | 1-0 | Crater | 0.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-23 | | 1-0 | Cascade | 0.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-21 | | 0-1 | Damascus Christian | 0.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2014-10-22 | | 0-1 | Crater | 0.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-19 | | 3-4 | Crater | 0.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-02 | | 4-0 | Kennedy | 0.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-27 | | 4-2 | Hillsboro | 1.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-18 | | 4-1 | Lake Oswego | 1.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-04 | | 1-0 | Estacada | 1.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2014-09-30 | | 5-1 | St. Helens | 1.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-07 | | 1-0 | Sweet Home | 1.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2015-10-15 | | 1-0 | Brookings-Harbor | 1.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-09-24 | | 1-0 | Glide | 1.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 0-6 | Brookings-Harbor | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 1-7 | Thurston | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 1-3 | Wilsonville | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 1-2 | Central Catholic | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 0-2 | Beaverton | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 1-3 | South Eugene | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 1-3 | Hood River Valley | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2013-09-03 | | 0-1 | Hillsboro | 1.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-20 | | 2-1 | Crook County | 2.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-21 | | 3-1 | Mazama | 2.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-26 | | 3-2 | North Bend | 2.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-20 | | 1-3 | Sunset | 2.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-04 | | 1-0 | South Umpqua | 2.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-15 | | 3-2 | Banks | 2.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-10-05 | | 2-1 | Santiam Christian / Kings Valley Char. | 2.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-11-03 | | 0-1 | Ontario | 2.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-17 | | 2-1 | Life Christian | 2.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-16 | | 3-2 | Rogue River | 2.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-22 | | 2-1 | Thurston | 2.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-30 | | 0-2 | North Clackamas Christian | 2.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2014-10-25 | | 2-1 | Mazama | 2.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2015-09-24 | | 1-2 | Santiam Christian | 2.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-22 | | 3-1 | Horizon Christian, Hood River | 3.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-19 | | 4-5 | Mannahouse Christian Acad. | 3.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-01 | | 2-4 | Central | 3.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-06 | | 0-1 | Corbett | 3.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-10-18 | | 1-0 | McMinnville | 3.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-18 | | 3-2 | Junction City | 3.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-24 | | 3-4 | Central Christian | 3.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2019-10-12 | | 1-0 | Baker / Powder Valley | 3.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2022-09-22 | | 3-1 | Sandy | 3.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-10 | | 3-2 | Glide | 4.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2016-10-05 | | 1-6 | Illinois Valley | 4.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2015-10-12 | | 2-1 | Hidden Valley | 4.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2018-09-21 | | 3-1 | Delphian | 4.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-19 | | 2-4 | Damascus Christian | 4.2% | Chronological backtest |