Back to 2019 upsets
Historical upset · 2019
Churchill at Thurston
October 22, 2019
Final · Oregon boys soccer
Thurston
5A
Home – Away
2–1
Churchill
5A
Thurston won with a 2.7% predicted chance.
Prediction at the time
Backtested prediction
Predicted score 0–3
Home 2.7%Draw 5.7%Away 91.6%
This prediction was reconstructed chronologically using only earlier completed games, with same-day results excluded. Model: Combined V2.
This backtested probability predates the verified JV cleanup and is pending a separate refresh.