Football Biggest Upsets
Winners ranked by their valid stored win probability. Historical predictions are chronological holdout backtests, not genuine pregame picks. Scores are home–away.
2025-11-07 · Chronological backtest
Churchill at Lebanon
Final 8–21 · Churchill won with a 6.5% chance
2025-10-17 · Chronological backtest
Hillsboro at Caldera
Final 33–27 · Caldera won with a 8.8% chance
2025-09-12 · Chronological backtest
McNary at Centennial
Final 15–19 · McNary won with a 9.1% chance
2025-10-31 · Chronological backtest
Pleasant Hill at Madras
Final 34–29 · Madras won with a 10.5% chance
2025-10-17 · Chronological backtest
Milwaukie / Milwaukie Acad. of the Arts at Gresham
Final 27–21 · Gresham won with a 10.6% chance
2025-09-12 · Chronological backtest
North Valley at Siuslaw
Final 24–23 · Siuslaw won with a 11.7% chance
2025-11-07 · Chronological backtest
Douglas at Dayton
Final 18–21 · Douglas won with a 12.3% chance
2025-09-12 · Chronological backtest
Astoria at The Dalles
Final 6–32 · Astoria won with a 12.3% chance
2025-09-05 · Chronological backtest
Beaverton at Central
Final 21–28 · Beaverton won with a 12.4% chance
2025-10-03 · Chronological backtest
Philomath at Crescent Valley
Final 20–15 · Crescent Valley won with a 12.7% chance
2025-09-26 · Chronological backtest
McDaniel at Jefferson, Portland
Final 12–15 · McDaniel won with a 12.9% chance
2025-10-10 · Chronological backtest
Blanchet Catholic at Amity
Final 20–24 · Blanchet Catholic won with a 13.0% chance
2025-09-26 · Chronological backtest
Springfield at North Eugene
Final 34–35 · Springfield won with a 13.3% chance
2025-09-12 · Chronological backtest
Reynolds at Lincoln
Final 0–2 · Reynolds won with a 13.8% chance
2025-09-26 · Chronological backtest
David Douglas at Parkrose
Final 28–35 · David Douglas won with a 14.2% chance
2025-10-24 · Chronological backtest
Sunset at Beaverton
Final 62–79 · Sunset won with a 15.9% chance
2025-11-07 · Chronological backtest
Gervais at Siuslaw
Final 28–48 · Gervais won with a 16.5% chance
2025-09-05 · Chronological backtest
Yamhill-Carlton at Scio
Final 37–18 · Scio won with a 16.6% chance
2025-10-24 · Chronological backtest
Springfield at Crater
Final 26–41 · Springfield won with a 16.7% chance
2025-10-10 · Chronological backtest
Sweet Home at Junction City
Final 24–7 · Junction City won with a 17.0% chance
2025-10-03 · Chronological backtest
Sherwood at Glencoe
Final 10–12 · Sherwood won with a 18.0% chance
2025-10-24 · Chronological backtest
Canby at Ida B. Wells
Final 46–38 · Ida B. Wells won with a 18.8% chance
2025-10-10 · Chronological backtest
Hidden Valley at Mazama
Final 14–24 · Hidden Valley won with a 18.9% chance
2025-09-19 · Chronological backtest
West Albany at Lebanon
Final 13–7 · Lebanon won with a 19.1% chance
2025-09-26 · Chronological backtest
Ida B. Wells at Roosevelt
Final 14–12 · Roosevelt won with a 19.3% chance
2025-10-03 · Chronological backtest
Roosevelt at Lincoln
Final 14–18 · Roosevelt won with a 19.5% chance
2025-11-14 · Chronological backtest
Central Catholic at Willamette
Final 20–27 · Central Catholic won with a 19.5% chance
2025-09-26 · Chronological backtest
Liberty at Beaverton
Final 27–44 · Liberty won with a 19.6% chance
2025-09-19 · Chronological backtest
Umatilla at McLoughlin
Final 6–14 · Umatilla won with a 19.8% chance
2025-09-08 · Chronological backtest
Estacada at Crook County
Final 7–22 · Estacada won with a 19.9% chance
2025-10-17 · Chronological backtest
North Marion at Valley Catholic
Final 21–28 · North Marion won with a 20.3% chance
2025-10-10 · Chronological backtest
Sprague at South Medford
Final 13–7 · South Medford won with a 20.7% chance
2025-09-19 · Chronological backtest
Sutherlin at Phoenix
Final 26–14 · Phoenix won with a 20.9% chance
2025-09-12 · Chronological backtest
Cottage Grove at Coquille
Final 34–0 · Coquille won with a 21.1% chance
2025-10-17 · Chronological backtest
Creswell at Madras
Final 56–26 · Madras won with a 21.1% chance
2025-09-12 · Chronological backtest
Sisters at Taft
Final 6–20 · Sisters won with a 21.1% chance
2025-11-07 · Chronological backtest
Lakeridge at Glencoe
Final 21–35 · Lakeridge won with a 21.3% chance
2025-10-03 · Chronological backtest
The Dalles at Woodburn
Final 28–21 · Woodburn won with a 21.8% chance
2025-10-31 · Chronological backtest
Springfield at Roseburg
Final 35–14 · Roseburg won with a 22.1% chance
2025-09-19 · Chronological backtest
Cottage Grove at Creswell
Final 21–13 · Creswell won with a 22.1% chance
2025-10-24 · Chronological backtest
Salem Acad. at Amity
Final 36–26 · Amity won with a 22.2% chance
2025-10-03 · Chronological backtest
North Salem at Sheldon
Final 14–21 · North Salem won with a 22.5% chance
2025-09-19 · Chronological backtest
Henley at Thurston
Final 35–27 · Thurston won with a 22.5% chance
2025-11-07 · Chronological backtest
Beaverton at North Salem
Final 15–35 · Beaverton won with a 22.9% chance
2025-10-03 · Chronological backtest
North Bend at Ashland
Final 39–47 · North Bend won with a 23.2% chance
2025-10-17 · Chronological backtest
Douglas at Coquille
Final 8–35 · Douglas won with a 23.2% chance
2025-11-07 · Chronological backtest
Grants Pass at Sherwood
Final 32–35 · Grants Pass won with a 23.5% chance
2025-10-03 · Chronological backtest
Sutherlin at Douglas
Final 41–40 · Douglas won with a 23.6% chance
2025-10-03 · Chronological backtest
Baker at Pendleton / Nixyaawii
Final 21–27 · Baker won with a 23.9% chance
2025-10-02 · Chronological backtest
Redmond at Caldera
Final 8–7 · Caldera won with a 24.0% chance