HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Scores are home–away. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. Backtests that predate the verified JV cleanup are withheld until refreshed. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
2023-10-02Chronological backtest
KE
KennedyHomeFinal (home–away) 4-00.8% chanceKennedy win
2023-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-32.3% chanceSunset win
2023-10-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-44.2% chanceDamascus Christian win
2023-10-26Chronological backtest
CE
CentralHomeFinal (home–away) 1-04.6% chanceCentral win
2023-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-44.8% chanceTaft win
2023-10-02Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 8-76.6% chanceDamascus Christian win
2023-11-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-37.1% chanceEstacada win
2023-11-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-27.6% chanceWilsonville win
2023-10-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-37.9% chanceColumbia Christian win
2023-09-14Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-19.1% chanceTillamook win
2023-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-19.2% chanceLa Grande win
2023-08-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-19.2% chanceJesuit win
2023-10-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-29.4% chanceNorth Bend win
2023-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-19.6% chanceEagle Point win
2023-10-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-29.7% chanceDe La Salle North Catholic win
2023-10-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-29.8% chanceRoosevelt win
2023-09-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-310.3% chanceGladstone win
2023-10-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-210.4% chanceMolalla win
2023-10-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-110.5% chancePhoenix win
2023-10-07Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-310.9% chanceChurchill win
2023-08-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-210.9% chanceSouth Eugene win
2023-10-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-411.9% chanceMcDaniel win
2023-11-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-113.9% chanceWilsonville win
2023-10-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-114.3% chanceGrant win
2023-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-214.8% chanceOregon City win
2023-11-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-214.9% chanceGrant win
2023-09-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-415.3% chanceWestern Christian / Amity win
2023-11-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-315.5% chanceHood River Valley win
2023-11-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-215.7% chanceCrook County win
2023-11-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-316.0% chanceMcDaniel win
2023-10-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-316.1% chanceSantiam Christian win
2023-09-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-117.0% chanceSutherlin win
2023-09-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-517.2% chanceWestern Christian / Amity win
2023-10-07Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-117.3% chanceSpringfield win
2023-10-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-017.5% chancePortland Christian win
2023-09-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-018.5% chanceOregon City win
2023-09-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-018.7% chanceBend win
2023-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-018.7% chanceLake Oswego win
2023-09-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-219.4% chancePortland Christian win
2023-09-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-419.4% chancePendleton win
2023-09-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-119.8% chanceCentennial win
2023-10-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-019.9% chanceCascade Christian win
2023-09-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-020.1% chanceCascade Christian win
2023-09-07Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-120.7% chanceReynolds win
2023-10-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-220.8% chanceWestern Christian / Amity win
2023-10-02Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-121.1% chanceHood River Valley win
2023-10-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-221.2% chanceWest Salem win
2023-09-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-021.3% chanceOregon Episcopal win
2023-11-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-321.4% chanceGrant win
2023-09-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-121.5% chanceCaldera win
| Date | Match | Final (home–away) | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-02 | KE Kennedy | 4-0 | Kennedy | 0.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-20 | | 1-3 | Sunset | 2.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-19 | | 2-4 | Damascus Christian | 4.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-26 | CE Central | 1-0 | Central | 4.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-03 | | 3-4 | Taft | 4.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-02 | | 8-7 | Damascus Christian | 6.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-11-01 | | 2-3 | Estacada | 7.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-11-01 | | 0-2 | Wilsonville | 7.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-23 | | 1-3 | Columbia Christian | 7.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-14 | | 0-1 | Tillamook | 9.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-20 | | 3-1 | La Grande | 9.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-08-25 | | 0-1 | Jesuit | 9.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-18 | | 3-2 | North Bend | 9.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-04 | | 0-1 | Eagle Point | 9.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-12 | | 3-2 | De La Salle North Catholic | 9.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-28 | | 1-2 | Roosevelt | 9.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-19 | | 1-3 | Gladstone | 10.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-19 | | 3-2 | Molalla | 10.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-05 | | 2-1 | Phoenix | 10.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-07 | | 1-3 | Churchill | 10.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-08-25 | | 1-2 | South Eugene | 10.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-28 | | 3-4 | McDaniel | 11.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-11-04 | | 0-1 | Wilsonville | 13.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-28 | | 0-1 | Grant | 14.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-26 | | 1-2 | Oregon City | 14.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-11-04 | | 1-2 | Grant | 14.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-19 | | 1-4 | Western Christian / Amity | 15.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-11-04 | | 2-3 | Hood River Valley | 15.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-11-01 | | 1-2 | Crook County | 15.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-11-01 | | 1-3 | McDaniel | 16.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-05 | | 1-3 | Santiam Christian | 16.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-12 | | 0-1 | Sutherlin | 17.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-16 | | 2-5 | Western Christian / Amity | 17.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-07 | | 2-1 | Springfield | 17.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-23 | | 2-0 | Portland Christian | 17.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-06 | | 2-0 | Oregon City | 18.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-05 | | 2-0 | Bend | 18.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-26 | | 3-0 | Lake Oswego | 18.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-15 | | 1-2 | Portland Christian | 19.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-05 | | 0-4 | Pendleton | 19.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-28 | | 3-1 | Centennial | 19.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-19 | | 1-0 | Cascade Christian | 19.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-21 | | 1-0 | Cascade Christian | 20.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-07 | | 0-1 | Reynolds | 20.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-11 | | 4-2 | Western Christian / Amity | 20.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-02 | | 2-1 | Hood River Valley | 21.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-10-10 | | 3-2 | West Salem | 21.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-22 | | 1-0 | Oregon Episcopal | 21.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-11-01 | | 2-3 | Grant | 21.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2023-09-01 | | 2-1 | Caldera | 21.5% | Chronological backtest |