HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Scores are home–away. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. Backtests that predate the verified JV cleanup are withheld until refreshed. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
2026-10-01Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 1-01.3% chanceRedmond / Culver win
2026-10-01Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 2-34.4% chanceYamhill-Carlton win
2026-09-22Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 3-25.2% chanceSherwood win
2026-10-08Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 1-25.6% chanceBaker / Powder Valley win
2026-09-18Chronological backtest
FB
Faith Bible / Life ChristianHomeFinal (home–away) 0-26.7% chancePortland Christian win
2026-10-31Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 2-08.0% chanceRedmond / Culver win
2026-09-15Chronological backtest
VC
Valor ChristianAway
Final (home–away) 6-48.6% chanceColumbia Christian win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-28.7% chanceSouthwest Christian win
2026-10-05Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 1-38.8% chanceSouthwest Christian win
2026-09-24Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 1-29.4% chanceMolalla win
2026-09-24Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 2-010.0% chanceReynolds win
2026-09-08Chronological backtest
N/
Nyssa / AdrianAway
Final (home–away) 5-110.1% chanceLa Grande win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-210.7% chanceCrescent Valley win
2026-09-24Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 1-211.1% chanceClackamas win
2026-09-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-213.0% chanceBrookings-Harbor win
2026-08-31Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-113.0% chanceCentury win
2026-10-06Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 1-214.0% chanceRedmond / Culver win
2026-09-10Chronological backtest
EC
Eugene Christian / Northwest Christian Acad.Away
Final (home–away) 8-014.3% chanceUmpqua Valley Christian win
2026-09-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-015.8% chanceRidgeview win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-216.7% chanceCaldera win
2026-10-01Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 6-316.8% chanceSouth Albany win
2026-09-22Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 1-317.9% chanceOregon City win
2026-09-01Chronological backtest
WC
Western ChristianAwayFinal (home–away) 1-018.0% chanceSouthwest Christian win
2026-08-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 5-118.5% chanceSalem Acad. win
2026-08-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-118.5% chanceMilwaukie win
2026-09-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-319.1% chanceParkrose win
2026-10-01Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 5-420.0% chanceMountain View win
2026-09-10Chronological backtest
N/
Nyssa / AdrianHomeFinal (home–away) 0-120.0% chanceUmatilla win
2026-09-03Chronological backtest
VC
Valor ChristianAwayFB
Faith Bible / Life ChristianHomeFinal (home–away) 5-220.3% chanceFaith Bible / Life Christian win
2026-09-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-120.4% chanceParkrose win
2026-09-24Stored pregame
LR
Lost River / BonanzaHomeFinal (home–away) 2-121.1% chanceLost River / Bonanza win
2026-08-27Chronological backtest
WC
Western ChristianHomeFinal (home–away) 0-621.4% chanceNorth Clackamas Christian win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
FB
Faith Bible / Life ChristianAway
Final (home–away) 1-221.7% chanceFaith Bible / Life Christian win
2026-09-23Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 1-321.9% chanceScappoose win
2026-09-22Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 2-122.0% chanceSweet Home win
2026-09-24Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 3-022.0% chanceTigard win
2026-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-122.1% chanceBend win
2026-09-14Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-322.1% chanceEast Linn Christian win
2026-09-24Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 3-122.2% chancePutnam win
2026-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 8-023.0% chanceBlanchet Catholic win
2026-09-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-323.6% chanceWoodburn win
2026-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-324.2% chanceRogue River win
2026-08-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-024.2% chanceLiberty win
2026-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-024.4% chanceRedmond / Culver win
2026-09-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-024.5% chanceMarist Catholic win
2026-09-14Chronological backtest
WC
Western ChristianHomeFinal (home–away) 1-224.5% chanceDamascus Christian win
2026-10-01Stored pregame
G/
Gladstone / Country ChristianAway
Final (home–away) 4-224.6% chanceMadras win
2026-09-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 8-025.0% chanceMazama win
2026-10-01Stored pregame
Final (home–away) 1-325.1% chanceKlamath Union win
2026-09-08Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-025.1% chanceClackamas win
Upset board50 games
| Date | Match | Final | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | | 1–0 | Redmond / Culver | 1.3% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-10-01 | | 2–3 | Yamhill-Carlton | 4.4% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-22 | | 3–2 | Sherwood | 5.2% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-10-08 | | 1–2 | Baker / Powder Valley | 5.6% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-18 | FB Faith Bible / Life Christian | 0–2 | Portland Christian | 6.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-10-31 | | 2–0 | Redmond / Culver | 8.0% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-15 | VC Valor Christian at | 6–4 | Columbia Christian | 8.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | | 1–2 | Southwest Christian | 8.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-10-05 | | 1–3 | Southwest Christian | 8.8% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-24 | | 1–2 | Molalla | 9.4% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-24 | | 2–0 | Reynolds | 10.0% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-08 | N/ Nyssa / Adrian at | 5–1 | La Grande | 10.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | | 4–2 | Crescent Valley | 10.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-24 | | 1–2 | Clackamas | 11.1% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-15 | | 4–2 | Brookings-Harbor | 13.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-08-31 | | 3–1 | Century | 13.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-10-06 | | 1–2 | Redmond / Culver | 14.0% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-10 | EC Eugene Christian / Northwest Christian Acad. at | 8–0 | Umpqua Valley Christian | 14.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-15 | | 1–0 | Ridgeview | 15.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | | 0–2 | Caldera | 16.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-10-01 | | 6–3 | South Albany | 16.8% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-22 | | 1–3 | Oregon City | 17.9% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-01 | WC Western Christian at | 1–0 | Southwest Christian | 18.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-08-29 | | 5–1 | Salem Acad. | 18.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-08-29 | | 2–1 | Milwaukie | 18.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-10 | | 1–3 | Parkrose | 19.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-10-01 | | 5–4 | Mountain View | 20.0% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-10 | N/ Nyssa / Adrian | 0–1 | Umatilla | 20.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-03 | VC Valor Christian at FB Faith Bible / Life Christian | 5–2 | Faith Bible / Life Christian | 20.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-01 | | 2–1 | Parkrose | 20.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-24 | LR Lost River / Bonanza | 2–1 | Lost River / Bonanza | 21.1% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-08-27 | WC Western Christian | 0–6 | North Clackamas Christian | 21.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | FB Faith Bible / Life Christian at | 1–2 | Faith Bible / Life Christian | 21.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-23 | | 1–3 | Scappoose | 21.9% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-22 | | 2–1 | Sweet Home | 22.0% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-24 | | 3–0 | Tigard | 22.0% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-03 | | 4–1 | Bend | 22.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-14 | | 2–3 | East Linn Christian | 22.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-24 | | 3–1 | Putnam | 22.2% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-03 | | 8–0 | Blanchet Catholic | 23.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-17 | | 2–3 | Woodburn | 23.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-03 | | 4–3 | Rogue River | 24.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-08-29 | | 1–0 | Liberty | 24.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-03 | | 2–0 | Redmond / Culver | 24.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-01 | | 2–0 | Marist Catholic | 24.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-09-14 | WC Western Christian | 1–2 | Damascus Christian | 24.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-10-01 | G/ Gladstone / Country Christian at | 4–2 | Madras | 24.6% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-03 | | 8–0 | Mazama | 25.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2026-10-01 | | 1–3 | Klamath Union | 25.1% | Stored pregame |
| 2026-09-08 | | 1–0 | Clackamas | 25.1% | Chronological backtest |