Football · 2026

Biggest Historical Upsets

Final games ranked by the winning team’s valid stored pregame or chronological backtest probability. Scores are home–away. Backtests are retrospective analytics, not live picks.

Date	Match	Final	Underdog winner	Pregame chance	Source
2025-11-07	Churchill at Lebanon	8–21	Churchill	6.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-17	Hillsboro at Caldera	33–27	Caldera	8.8%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-12	McNary at Centennial	15–19	McNary	9.1%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-31	Pleasant Hill at Madras	34–29	Madras	10.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-17	Milwaukie / Milwaukie Acad. of the Arts at Gresham	27–21	Gresham	10.6%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-12	North Valley at Siuslaw	24–23	Siuslaw	11.7%	Chronological backtest
2025-11-07	Douglas at Dayton	18–21	Douglas	12.3%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-12	Astoria at The Dalles	6–32	Astoria	12.3%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-05	Beaverton at CE Central	21–28	Beaverton	12.4%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-03	Philomath at Crescent Valley	20–15	Crescent Valley	12.7%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-26	McDaniel at Jefferson, Portland	12–15	McDaniel	12.9%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-10	Blanchet Catholic at AM Amity	20–24	Blanchet Catholic	13.0%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-26	Springfield at North Eugene	34–35	Springfield	13.3%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-12	Reynolds at Lincoln	0–2	Reynolds	13.8%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-26	David Douglas at Parkrose	28–35	David Douglas	14.2%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-24	Sunset at Beaverton	62–79	Sunset	15.9%	Chronological backtest
2025-11-07	Gervais at Siuslaw	28–48	Gervais	16.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-05	Yamhill-Carlton at SC Scio	37–18	Scio	16.6%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-24	Springfield at Crater	26–41	Springfield	16.7%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-10	Sweet Home at Junction City	24–7	Junction City	17.0%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-03	Sherwood at Glencoe	10–12	Sherwood	18.0%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-24	Canby at Ida B. Wells	46–38	Ida B. Wells	18.8%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-10	Hidden Valley at Mazama	14–24	Hidden Valley	18.9%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-19	West Albany at Lebanon	13–7	Lebanon	19.1%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-26	Ida B. Wells at Roosevelt	14–12	Roosevelt	19.3%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-03	Roosevelt at Lincoln	14–18	Roosevelt	19.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-11-14	Central Catholic at Willamette	20–27	Central Catholic	19.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-26	Liberty at Beaverton	27–44	Liberty	19.6%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-19	Umatilla at McLoughlin	6–14	Umatilla	19.8%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-08	Estacada at Crook County	7–22	Estacada	19.9%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-17	North Marion at Valley Catholic	21–28	North Marion	20.3%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-10	Sprague at South Medford	13–7	South Medford	20.7%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-19	Sutherlin at Phoenix	26–14	Phoenix	20.9%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-12	Cottage Grove at CO Coquille	34–0	Coquille	21.1%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-17	Creswell at Madras	56–26	Madras	21.1%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-12	Sisters at Taft	6–20	Sisters	21.1%	Chronological backtest
2025-11-07	Lakeridge at Glencoe	21–35	Lakeridge	21.3%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-03	The Dalles at Woodburn	28–21	Woodburn	21.8%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-31	Springfield at Roseburg	35–14	Roseburg	22.1%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-19	Cottage Grove at Creswell	21–13	Creswell	22.1%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-24	Salem Acad. at AM Amity	36–26	Amity	22.2%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-03	North Salem at Sheldon	14–21	North Salem	22.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-19	Henley at Thurston	35–27	Thurston	22.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-11-07	Beaverton at North Salem	15–35	Beaverton	22.9%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-03	North Bend at Ashland	39–47	North Bend	23.2%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-17	Douglas at CO Coquille	8–35	Douglas	23.2%	Chronological backtest
2025-11-07	Grants Pass at Sherwood	32–35	Grants Pass	23.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-03	Sutherlin at Douglas	41–40	Douglas	23.6%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-03	BA Baker at P/ Pendleton / Nixyaawii	21–27	Baker	23.9%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-02	Redmond at Caldera	8–7	Caldera	24.0%	Chronological backtest